CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-06T08:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-06T08:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28036/-1
CME Note: Very faint CME seen to the N, slightly NW, in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and extremely faintly in STEREO A COR2. The source is the eruption of a small S-shaped filament seen on the Earth-facing disk, spanning N10E00 to N22E10, with noticeable NW deflection during liftoff seen in UV imagery. Liftoff at about 2023-12-06T05:04Z is seen in SDO AIA 304. Post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, and post-eruptive brightening in SDO AIA 304, 171, 193. | Non-arrival note: There is no evidence of arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-09T14:30Z (-35.0h, +35.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:
initial CME speed = 250 km/s; background SW speed = 450 km/s abs heliolongitude = 5 degLead Time: 27.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2023-12-08T11:30Z
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